Gulf Conundrum: Deception Vs. Policy

Foreign policy wonks, politicians, and even the presidents of Jewish organizations have returned from their visits to Saudi Arabia and Arab sheikdoms — dazed by "private confessions" that these regimes deeply fear Iran, uniformly favor attacking its nuclear facilities, and do indeed possess armies and air forces superior to the ayatollahs'. They also "really" accept Israel, several of these visitors keep assuring us, even if their princes would not shake hands with a Jew in public.

Some go on to suggest that it is somehow America that is laggard in corralling these good folks to attack Iran.

Indeed, it seems that President Bush is readying a visit to the region that might even include a stop in the motherland of Islamofascism, Saudi Arabia, as the blueprints of new alliances are being bandied about. Mr. Bush and his advisers may want to face some facts before they take the plunge.

• Private mutterings aside, the world press was inundated a few days ago with photos of the Saudi king, Abdullah, strolling hand-in-hand with President Ahmadinejad of Iran at the yearly Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Qatar. This year was the very first time since its inception in 1981 that the Gulf Cooperation Council, led by the Saudis, invited Iran to the love fest.

• Even in fear, it would be a grave error to assume perpetually bickering Bedouins can ever unite in political action. The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have not in 27 years of "cooperation" been able to set up a common army, single currency, or common market even though these subjects top their every agenda. Worthy of note is that their combined native population of 35 million — which includes substantial Iranian and Shiite Muslim minorities — is barely half the size of Iran's.

• A conservative pundit, Max Boot, returned from a foray to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates impressed by the GCC's collective armies — which, he said, boast 627 combat-capable advanced aircraft compared with Iran's 286 warplanes. He was essentially suggesting these folks can take Iran on. What's missing in the logic is that, in the Gulf, owning expensive toys does not mean using them. It is well known, for example, that the UAE employs Pakistanis and other subcontinent Asians to drive its French tanks. Emiratis prefer to drive Lamborghinis. More fundamentally, much of the weaponry bought by Saudi Arabia and other oil Bedouins is purchased based on how much money in commissions and bribes is kicked back to the royals by manufacturers. In the two Gulf wars of 1991 and 2003, Saudis, Kuwaitis, or other Gulfies did not shoot in anger or even in self-defense. President George H.W. Bush put together an army of 500,000 Americans and other expatriates to liberate Kuwait and defend Saudis from the clutches of Saddam as they watched from five-star hotels in Cairo and London.

• Iran is the second-largest oil producer of the Gulf region after Saudi Arabia, with business tentacles reaching deep into the area's economy. The United Arab Emirates, for example, is the leading offshore regional commercial center for Iran. Its population includes 300,000 Iranian permanent residents controlling about $300 billion in assets and operating 10,000 Iranian companies. Trade between these two countries was more than $11 billion last year. More than 60% of Bahrain's total population is Shiite Muslims who deeply resent their Sunni rulers and adore Iran. So it goes in the rest of the Arab Gulf.

• And what you hear is not what you get. Saudi Arabia may fear Iran's Shiite rulers, but it unites with Tehran as a prime sponsor of the Palestinian Arab terrorist organization Hamas. Saudis supply preachers, ideology, and funds. Iranian supplies arms and training. Similarly, Qatar hosts the U.S. Central Command while its government-owned Al-Jazeera breathes the fires of anti-Americanism, Islamofascism, and anti-Semitism 24/7 to the whole region and the world.

It is important to get these regional facts right if some of the president's advisers are whispering they see a new silver lining out there. If we were to enter into a new confrontation with Iran, our approach should be unlike our failed project in Iraq.

ymibrahim@gmail.com