Here's a prediction about the phony budget being passed in Albany — it won't include enough revenue to fund the vast spending approved by state lawmakers. And, as our Jacob Gershman reports, lawmakers may return after November's election and raise taxes to cover the shortfall. "If we don't do it right now, we have the possibility of coming back and doing it after the session is over," a Democratic assemblyman of Brooklyn, Felix Ortiz, said.

The real estate transfer tax raised $1 billion for the state in 2007, up from half that in 2003 and 2004. The numbers may hold up for a few months because of closings at the Plaza and at 15 Central Park West, but eventually, this gusher is going to taper off, as New York's real estate market aligns with the national downturn in housing.

Personal income taxes raised $34.5 billion for the state in 2007, up from $23.6 billion in 2003. That includes taxes paid on Wall Street bonuses, which are likely to be smaller this year as firms grapple with the fallout from the credit crunch. Profits — and therefore income — are also likely to be smaller at hedge funds and private equity shops.

What family in the city do you know that is looking at their family budget for the year ahead and deciding to opt to spend more, to spend record amounts, more than inflation, more than the percentage their income is increasing? In fact, families are cutting back their budgets, tightening their belts. In Albany, though, spending is increasing, by billions of dollars. Much of the spending is wasteful, or achieves mediocre results. Other states get comparable results with less spending. You won't hear this message from either the Republican or the Democratic leaders in Albany, who are collaborating on a budget that will defer the hard choices until later.