Democrats Problem: Republican Field is very strong
Reader comment on: In Polls, Clinton Loses to Republicans

Submitted by Laurence Wagman, Jun 19, 2007 12:17

When push comes to show, the democrats have a weak field of candidates. Hillary, Obama, and Edwards have basically one Senate Term under their belt, with no executive experience (i.e. Governor or mayor of NYC). The best candidate the Democrats have is Bill Richardson, who barely shows up in the polls.

Contrast that to the GOP field. Giuliani was the Mayor of the largest city in the United States, and has an outstanding record. Mitt Romney was Governor of Massachusetts, John McCain has about 20 years of Senate Experience (While I don't like him, I believe he has modeled himself as a Henry Clay type figure). Fred Thompson, with only 1+ terms as Senator was also co-chief counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee in its investigation of the Watergate scandal, (1973–1974). He was responsible for Baker asking one of the questions that is said to have led directly to the downfall of President Richard Nixon—"What did the President know, and when did he know it? Interestingly Hillary Clinton was also involved with watergate, During 1974 she was a member of the impeachment inquiry staff in Washington, D.C., advising the House Committee on the Judiciary during the Watergate scandal.

Personality wise, the Democrat's best hope is Obama, on the GOP side both Thompson and Giuliani command broad respect (and look presidential). Even the weaker candidates Romney and McCain all look presidential. On the flip side, Hillary's negatives still remain very high. Recent polls show that 47% of Americans WILL NOT VOTE for her, this is a big problem because Hillary doesn't exactly have the charm her husband had in wooing voters. The star power on the GOP side is outstanding. Thompson who has perhaps the least amount of governmental experience, has an actor's appeal. He knows how to use the camera, and is quick witted. Hillary would be crushed in a debate with the former Senator/Laywer/Actor. Giuliani is as tough as they come. Both McCain and Romney have also done well in the GOP debates.

Finally, the Demographics. If Giuliani is to win the nomination, Hillary is toast. Giuliani will sweep the south (as conservatives hold there noses and pull the lever) In the North East, Giuliani will probably take PA and NJ, and keep NY competitive. The Midwest will also be interesting. In 2004, Kerry narrowly won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. I really have a hard time envisioning the rank in file male Union workers in those states voting in mass for Hillary Clinton. Lets look out West. Giuliani's credentials for being tough on crime will gain tracation in states like AZ, NM, CO, and CA who are tired of illegal immigration. Giuliani will remain quite competitive in California, and could very well squeak it out, if either NJ, NY, or PA fall into the Red column early. Thus, my Prediction is this, if Giuliani wins, the election will be over before polls close in California Giuliani will win more than 400 electoral votes. Democrats will hold on to the House, and marginally lose the Senate.

Finally, the Democrats biggest problem is that they are running against George Bush. Unfortunately they fail to understand that the Constitution prohibits him from running. This mistake will be there undoing!

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