For First Time, Treasury Notes Are Riskier Than German Bunds

The risk of losses on U.S. Treasury notes exceeded German bunds for the first time ever amid investor concern the subprime mortgage crisis is sapping government reserves, credit-default swaps prices show.

Contracts on 10-year Treasuries traded at a record 16 basis points earlier yesterday, compared with 15 basis points on German government notes, according to data compiled by BNP Paribas SA. In July, U.S. credit-default swaps were at 1.6 basis points, compared with 2.5 basis points on bunds.

"The U.S. government is not immune from the consequences of the credit crisis," BNP's head of high-grade corporate trading in London, Fabrizio Capanna, said. "Support for troubled financial institutions in the U.S. will be perceived as a weakening of U.S. sovereign credit."

The Fed is trying to ease investor concern that a decline in house valuations and record foreclosures will add to losses for companies including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest providers of American mortgages. The $4.5 trillion of agency mortgage securities is about the same size as the market for Treasury notes.

Credit-default swaps are used to speculate on the ability of companies or governments to repay their debt and offer a benchmark for pricing securities. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A decline indicates improvement in the perception of credit quality; an increase, the opposite.

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for 10 years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.